Archive for the ‘Another Perspective’ Category

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Friday, June 27th, 2008

 

A blog caught my eye today because a link in it sent an inordinate amount of traffic to LHCFacts yesterday.  This must be a very popular blog.  The blogger's name is Scott Aaronson and this link will take you to his blog. 

 

Buy viagra soft tabs without prescription, Scott makes an interesting point which I would like to comment on.  The point he makes, rather humorously, is that the earth might in fact be destroyed by NOT turning on the LHC.  He explains that there is a non-zero probability that next year aliens may visit the Planet Earth and enslave us for having not discovered the Higgs boson via the LHC.  He also points out that we may save Earth by learning from the LHC how to neutralize a wormhole or a chunk of anti-matter that may be careening toward Earth at this very moment.  All scary thoughts, and all possibly carry a non-zero probability. 

 

Therefore, his point is to match up, as he puts it, the "vanishingly small" probabilities of LHC destroys Earth vs. Viagra soft tabs, LHC saves Earth, and in so doing invalidate the Precautionary Principle in this case.  I have a couple problems with this.  But first, viagra soft tabs pharmacy online, Real viagra soft tabs without prescription, I'd like to highlight this comment by Scott from his own blog:

 


James, my point was not that the critics think the LHC should be stopped if P>0, discount viagra soft tabs no rx, Order viagra soft tabs overnight delivery, but that they seem to assume without any evidence that P>Q, where Q is the probability of the earth being destroyed if the LHC is not turned on, viagra soft tabs in bangkok. Cheap viagra soft tabs pharmacy, If both probabilities could be calculated and if P were orders of magnitude greater, then I think a strong case could be made against the LHC, canada viagra soft tabs. Drug viagra soft tabs, As it is, I think both probabilities are nonzero, get viagra soft tabs, Lowest price for viagra soft tabs, neither can be calculated (nor can their relative order of magnitude), and neither is far enough from zero to be worth expending many brain cycles on.

 

An excellent argument.  Here's my problem.  P is the probability of LHC destroys Earth.  Now this probability may or may not be "vanishingly small", best price viagra soft tabs, Find viagra soft tabs online, but it's origin is VERY different than the origin of Q, the probability that LHC saves Earth.  P was deduced.  Q was induced.

 

I won't go into great detail here about why deductive logic is much more powerful than inductive logic, cheap viagra soft tabs without prescription, Cheap viagra soft tabs pill, but all the concerns that have been spelled out by Walter Wagner and James Blodgett have been deduced from statements and theoretical predictions of the very particle physicists working on the LHC.  And the arguments in favor of Q are induced, or forced, viagra soft tabs no prescription, Buy generic viagra soft tabs, as it were.  A deductive conclusion always carries more weight than an induced one does, so this scale on which Mr, sale viagra soft tabs. Viagra soft tabs from india, Aaronson has placed P and Q clearly leans toward P on this reasoning alone.

 

Next I will address the "vanishingly smallness" of the concerns.  Without getting "premature[ly] bayesian", one can easily apply Bayes Theorem to the general, buy viagra soft tabs online without prescription, Buy viagra soft tabs online, theoretical predictions James Blodgett got from some of these physicists a few years ago.  (see the last two paragraphs here)   And the product of the bayesian calculation is anything but "vanishingly small".  Sure it's small, but in my world as an advantage gambler, compare viagra soft tabs prices online, Order viagra soft tabs no prescription, even 49% is small.  Vanishingly small usually means that it would take more trials to see the result than the universe has time to try.  I'll admit, Mr, buy viagra soft tabs without prescription. Aaronson's LHC saves Earth scenarios are most likely vanishingly small, but Mr, buy viagra soft tabs without prescription. Buy viagra soft tabs low price, Wagner's concerns most certainly are not.  So the scale leans even farther toward P.

 

Lastly, I will address the Precautionary Principle.  Mr, overnight viagra soft tabs. Viagra soft tabs malaysia, Aaronson says,


And that being the case, cheap price viagra soft tabs, Viagra soft tabs bangkok, the Precautionary Principle dictates taking the only safe course of action: namely, turning the LHC on as soon as possible.

 

After all, lowest price viagra soft tabs, Purchase viagra soft tabs online, the fate of the planet might conceivably depend on it.

 

Actually, the Precautionary Principle differentiates between action and inaction.  And since no one has come forward with a solid deductive reason the LHC is required to save Earth, viagra soft tabs australia, Viagra soft tabs buy drug, that very action of turning on the LHC falls directly across the table from P, LHC destroys Earth, fda approved viagra soft tabs, Viagra soft tabs buy online, which asks only for inaction.

 

So you have Q, LHC saves Earth, generic viagra soft tabs online, Viagra soft tabs generic, based on "vanishingly small" probabilities, originating from inductive reasoning, viagra soft tabs internet, Cheap viagra soft tabs overnight delivery, asking for ACTION!  And on the other side you have P, LHC destroys Earth, viagra soft tabs cheap price, based on not so vanishingly small probabilities, originating from deductive reasoning, asking only for INACTION.  (Or at least for a delay in action).  I think this is a perfect scenario for the Precautionary Principle which states:


if an action... might cause severe or irreversible harm to the public... the burden of proof falls on those who would advocate taking the action.   (Raffensberger C. & J. Tickner (eds.) (1999) Protecting Public Health and the Environment: Implementing the Precautionary Principle. Island Press, Washington, DC)

 

In the blog comments, James D. Miller asks Scott Aaronson,


For what values of P would you advocate stopping the LHC?

 

Scott answers by saying you must be able to calculate BOTH probabilities, P and Q, in order to see the balance of the scale.  But I say that first you must have a Q that has as solid a founding as our DEDUCTIVE P with which to start calculating probabilities.  And the probability of P, at least based on the faith of the scientists in their own theories, is not impossible to calculate. 

 

James Blodgett has already shown this to be the case.  If there were a balanced system in place to address these issues of existential risk, answers could be easily forthcoming.  But in the environment we are in, where CERN conducts it's own safety study, and picks it's own peers for review, such is not the case.

 

One final thought.  P maybe small or it may be large.  But even if P is very small... I mean verrrrry small, the risk is still HUGE.  Remember, P is just probability.  But RISK = P * C (cost).  And the cost we are talking about is the whole planet, everything, aka infinity.  So get out your calculators, kids, and multiply .00000001 times infinity and see what you get.  Yup, the risk is infinite.  And that's why the Precautionary Principle is so important in issues of planetary risk.

 

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Posted in Another Perspective, on Scott Aaronson's blog | 11 Comments »

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Tuesday, June 10th, 2008

Professional Ethicists at Oxford discuss the issue Buy ultram without prescription, :

April 15, 2008
Three arguments against turning the Large Hadron Collider on
In response to Anders Sandberg's post on the Large Hadron Collider.

The physicists responses to worries about the risks posed by the LHC make it unclear whether they understand the moral issue, ultram prices. Buy cheapest ultram on line, They may have the power, but they do not have the liberty to hazard the destruction of all present and future goodness, ultram from canada. Ultram without a prescription, Nobody does.

Professor Frank Close of the University of Oxford has been quoted as saying that "The idea that it could cause the end of the world is ridiculous." (here), ultram vendors. Is it ridiculous because it is impossible, or because it is very unlikely, buy ultram without prescription. Pharmacy ultram, I don’t think he knows it is impossible, and being very unlikely is not sufficient to dismiss the risk, ultram pharmacy. Low price ultram, Yes, it’s very unlikely, purchase ultram without prescription, Ultram non prescription, but being very unlikely is not remotely unlikely enough and may be beside the point, as, drug ultram, Ultram sales, I think, these three arguments demonstrate, buy ultram from us. Cheap ultram overnight delivery,
1st Argument.
1. A necessary condition on doing anything which might destroy all present and future goodness is that the expected value of doing it is positive

2, ultram generic. Buy ultram without prescription, Setting g to be the total goodness (all present and future goodness) in the absence of running the LHC, x the factor by which running the LHC for a week increases goodness if it doesn’t bring total destruction, and p the chance of total destruction per week of running, then (gx–g) is the benefit that might be gained from a week’s running and the expected value is (1-p)(gx–g)-pg . Order ultram without prescription, 3. For the expected value of one week’s running of LHC to be positive we require (1-p)(gx–g)-pg >0 i.e, ultram overnight shipping. Order ultram in canada, x > 1/(1-p).

4, ultram discount. Suppose p is one billionth, then x > 1.000000001…, buy ultram without prescription. Buy ultram once daily, 5. So one week’s running of the LHC must increase total goodness by more than one billionth for the expected value to be positive, buy ultram us. Buy generic ultram, 6. But one week’s running of the LHC won’t increase total goodness by anything like one billionth, ultram cheap drug. Buy ultram without prescription, 7. Ultram medication, Therefore the LHC should not be turned on.

2nd Argument
8, order ultram. Ultram online cheap, Suppose that a sufficient condition for it to be permissible to do something which might bring on the destruction of all present and future goodness is that the expected value of doing it is positive

9. Let g be the total goodness without doing that thing, order ultram from canada, Purchase ultram online, x the factor by which doing it increases goodness if it doesn’t bring total destruction, and p the chance of total destruction, order ultram from us. Then for the expected value to be positive requires x > 1/(1-p)

10, buy ultram without prescription. Ultram professional, In that case it would be permissible to risk total goodness by doing something that risked total destruction with a chance of 50% provided it offered to increase total goodness by more than twice.

11, buy ultram from canada. Find cheap ultram online, But not even doubling goodness justifies the risk of destroying all goodness.

12, find ultram without prescription. Buy ultram without prescription, Therefore positive expected value is not sufficient to risk the destruction of all present and future goodness. Buy cheap ultram, 3rd Argument
13. Avoidable risks of destruction of all present and future goodness should not be taken, no prescription ultram. Ultram cheap price, 14. Turning on LHC is an avoidable risk of destruction of all present and future goodness, purchase ultram overnight delivery. Find no rx ultram, 15. Therefore it should not be turned on, cheap price ultram. Find ultram on internet.

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Posted in Another Perspective, The Ethical Perspective, Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

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Thursday, June 5th, 2008

 

Buy accutane without prescription, I have written a short allegory, so please bear with me.  Imagine that as a child I became fascinated with guns and bullets.  My parents began to worry about this "unhealthy" fascination.  As a teen I designed an experiment where I carefully aimed two .22 caliber rifles at each other and rigged some string to fire them both at the same time.  I set up a video camera at the middle to tape the collision of the two bullets and play it back in slow motion.  My experiment was a wild success but it alarmed the neighbors who began complaining that I was a reckless juvenile.

 

As a young adult, I took my experiment to new heights, first with high powered rifles and later with military artillery.  I now had a track record and some people in the military were taking note of my research.  But no matter where I went to do these experiments, I made the locals nervous.  They always said my experiments were reckless and that someone was going to get hurt sooner or later.  But I always argued that it would only be me who was hurt.

 

In my early 30's I began flying radio controlled (full sized) jet fighters into head on collisions, and supersonic missiles.  I was the master of collisions and my video tapes were the proof.  No one else could destroy something with as much grace as me, and record the results.  Some claimed that whatever I was learning by my collisions could be learned in less reckless ways, but hey, I was like a big kid with big toys... and I had some big support.

 

Now at 42 I have designed my greatest experiment to date.  Some are calling it my coup de grâce, canadian pharmacy accutane, Accutane no rx, but I just tell them it will reveal things we haven't even thought of.  You see, that's the beauty of my experiments.., cheapest accutane. Accutane overnight shipping, you never know exactly what you will find, but the video tapes sure are a big hit on youtube! 

 

So my new experiment is this:  I'm going to collide two nuclear tipped missiles traveling at 50, accutane without a prescription, Accutane online sales, 000 miles an hour, 200 miles up in space.  The combined collision will be at 100, accutane cheap, Accutane medication, 000 miles per hour!  When these missiles slam into each other (with a precision that is my trade secret), the double atomic explosion will be the greatest fireworks show ever.  I'm going to do it out over the water but in view of New York City.., order accutane no rx. Accutane us, on the Fourth of July!! 

 

Sure, there are protestors.  Some of these people say that I will create an Electro Magnetic Pulse that will wipe out the city.  But that kind of talk is just gibberish.  They don't know what they are talking about.  They haven't spent their life on this work...., buy accutane from india. Accutane cheap price, I have!  And on top of that, I have the support and the financing of the government.  So they can't touch me.  They can scream all they want, accutane no online prescription, No prescription accutane, but I guarantee that they'll come out to watch the show!  And once everyone sees my show, I will be celebrated the world over.  For I AM the master of the collision.  I know this, accutane free delivery, Buy accutane no rx, those powerful people in the government know this... and soon the world will too!

 

Note: A coup de grâce is a death blow, where to order accutane, Accutane in australia, a finishing stroke or a decisive event that destroys something of great importance or value.

 

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Wednesday, June 4th, 2008


    

Buy amoxicillin without prescription, I am a professional gambler.  And from this unique perspective I speak with a certain wisdom.  I have strong feelings about the CERN LHC experiment and in my view, it is completely obvious that CERN is making an unwise gamble.  I don't think the scientists have any understanding of the negative side of Expected Value.  In poker you must ask yourself, "If I played this exact scenario over and over again, ad infinitum, will I come out ahead or behind?"  And in blackjack, the so-often mistaken strategy is to double down each successive hand until you gain a win.  In the long run this strategy fails every time because it has a -ev.

 

If it turns out the LHC has a -ev and they collide particles ad infinitum, then we may all be doomed. 

 

My understanding of the science involved is limited by comparison to others, but I believe that Walter Wagner and James Blodgett have laid out a strong and credible case that the LHC is taking risks the public would not accept.  And that they have laid out this case using strong deductive reasoning based on statements by credible scientists.  CERN is only able to defend their experiment using weak inductive reasoning.  This is a clear advantage for the side of safety.

 

All anyone really needs to know about this debate is the difference in strength between deduction and induction.  Please go to Wikipedia and search these two topics.  If you can understand them, you will understand the widom of what I say.  If Walter Wagner and James Blodgett's premise is correct, then their conclusion MUST be correct.  This is ABSOLUTELY NOT THE CASE with CERN's arguments.  Their arguments support their conclusions, but do not entail them!

 

It is also clear to me that the scientists of CERN are trying to keep this discussion within the realm of hard-to-understand science.  And they are desperately avoiding the subject of risk.  This may be because they don't understand risk, but more likely, it is because risk can be understood by the average man while their science cannot. 

 

In conclusion, I believe that we have the upper hand.  More work is desperately needed as this issue MUST become public knowledge.  But once it does, we will see safety prevail.  Because the human race is not self-destructive, no matter what the odds or Nobel Prize rewards.

   

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Posted in James Blodgett's Deductive Logic | 4 Comments »

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Monday, May 26th, 2008

We expect to see some of the same vitriol expressed at this site as we have seen at LHCConcerns Buy paxil without prescription, and other places. However, canada paxil, Find cheap paxil, this is a little confusing to me. This section is for the discussion of this raw emotion, paxil pharmacy. Cheapest paxil prices, I can understand why a number of people opposed to the LHC would feel the need to lash out. And I can understand why someone at CERN would use certain argumentative tactics to try and discredit our efforts, low cost paxil. What is confusing is the vitriol that seems to come from everyday scientific enthusiasts, buy paxil without prescription. Paxil online sale, I count myself in this group. I love science, buy cheap paxil, Approved paxil pharmacy, especially Quantum Mechanics. I am enthralled by the discoveries that have been made, order paxil no prescription, Canadian pharmacy paxil, and the quests for new discoveries. What concerns me about this coming experiment at the CERN LHC is that it may be the very first and only experiment at a scale which could destroy all life, paxil rx.

This moves science out of the realm of the Proactionary Principle Buy paxil without prescription, , and into the realm of the Precautionary Principle. Compare paxil prices, This shift is important because it puts the burden on CERN to show us that the experiment is safe. In my opinion, cheap paxil tablet, Order paxil, this is the main crux of our argument. And until it is shown to be safe, order paxil no rx, Buy paxil in us, or at least at an acceptable level of risk to all people concerned (which is all people), the experiment should be delayed, buy discount paxil online. Paxil approved, This means that they should have the informed consent of the people. So far, they do not, buy paxil without prescription.

So the vitriol we see from certain people not associated with CERN seems misplaced, cheap paxil from canada. Buy paxil without prescription, If they just want the experiment to go forward because of their own desire to see the results, then they should assist in the process of informing and gaining consent, paxil no rx. Paxil buy drug, Most of the attacks we get use logical fallacies in their arguments. Some just reiterate the fallacious safety arguments which date back to the RHIC and which are some of the very bases for our concern, paxil non prescription. Buy paxil without prescription, If you are one of these people, I would ask you to try and empathize with our concerns. Certified paxil, In that way you will be better equipped to address our concerns and gain our consent.

If you have a comment about the raw emotions you read on this site or others, paxil no rx required, Buying generic paxil, please post it here. My greatest hope is to see this discussion shift to a meaningful, paxil buy, Best price for paxil, productive, and progressive one, order paxil from canada. Paxil online stores, I would like nothing more than to feel comfortable and confident that the LHC will not turn into a disaster of biblical proportions. At this point I do not, buy paxil canada. Paxil cheap drug, Another. Paxil overnight. Cheap paxil from usa. Cheap paxil. Paxil discount. Cheap generic paxil. Paxil sales. Paxil cheap price. Paxil malaysia.

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